The interests of members of this group span probability theory, decision theory, and game theory; statistical reasoning; computability and randomness; and the application of formal methods to issues of induction, scientific method and epistemology more generally.
Jeffrey Barrett Professor Barrett is interested in chance and probability in physical theories, including notions of algorithmic randomness, and is currently working on a project that uses evolutionary game theory to model salient features of empirical inquiry.
Simon Huttegger Professor Huttegger is interested in subjective probability, inductive reasoning and randomness. He is working on extending Carnap’s inductive logic, on dynamic coherence and updating probabilities, on probability kinematics, and on merging of opinions. He is currently writing a book, The Probabilistic Foundations of Rational Learning,under contract with Cambridge University Press.
Kent Johnson Professor Johnson is interested in how combinations of multiple types of evidence can aid in the discovery and justification of theoretical statements. Such inductive procedures often use explicit probability models. But they also often use non-probabilistic methods, like constrained optimal (imperfect) representations of data. Many causal and structural equation modeling approaches lie somewhere in between.
Brian Skyrms Professor Skyrms is interested in probability and induction, especially Bayesian accounts of inductive reasoning. This extends to inductive reasoning in decision and in games. He recently published a book of essays, From Zeno to Arbitrage, and is working on a new book, Ten Great Ideas About Chance, with Persi Diaconis.
Sean Walsh Professor Walsh's work in this area concerns connections between mathematical logic
and the theory of probability. He's interested in particular in connections between
probability and descriptive set theory, probabilistic analogues of incompleteness,
and algorithmic randomness.
Affiliated faculty include William Batchelder (Cognitive Sciences), Louis Narens (Cognitive Sciences), and Donald Saari (Economics).
Current students in this group include Gerard Rothfus (decision theory) and Jeffrey Schatz (computability, formal learning theory).
Upcoming and Recent Workshops
Topics in Inductive Logic
First Salzburg-Irvine-Munich Workshop
Ongoing Activities of the Probability, Induction, and Formal Epistemology Group
Social Dynamics Seminar