University of California, Berkeley

**Abstract: **

**A general mechanical procedure for reasoning about
the probability calculus is presented. This procedure is then used to solve
various problems in Bayesian Philosophy of Science (in particular, in Bayesian
confirmation theory). Our procedure provides a vindication of the dreams of
Boole (and Leibniz) to have a usable "Probability Machine" with which to investigate
the cogency of (arbitrary) arguments involving the probability calculus. All
necessary technical and philosophical background will be provided during the
talk.**

SST 777

3 pm

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