Probability and Statistics

Probability and Statistics, Econ 15A-B

Reminder: You are responsible for all the material on this page, including the Fine Print below.

Basic Information

Drop/Add policy: This course complies with the Economics Department's drop/add policy. (short story: no drops after second week, not sixth week)

Signing Drop/Add cards: As per departmental policy, I do not sign Drop/Add cards. If you have a matter that requires a signature, you must see Nancy Ford in the Economics Department [SSPB 3223].

Instructor: Kent Johnson (learn more about Kent here; learn less about Kent here)

Office Hours: T 1230-2p (and by appointment)

Email: johnsonk@uci.edu

Office Location: SST 755

TAs

TA: Pepe Luna-Alpizar email
Office Hours: W 5-7p
Office Location: SST 616

TA: Arshad Rahman email
Office Hours: T 3-5p
Office Location: SSPA 3161

TA: Ji Won Baek email
Office Hours: F 1030a-1230p
Office Location: SST 358

TA: Jim Zhang email
Office Hours: TTh 1245-145p
Office Location: SST 608

Textbook:

15A: Stein, Robert and Dean Foster 2011. Statistics for business: Decision Making and Analysis. Econ 15A: A custom edition for UC Irvine. Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.
15B: Stein, Robert and Dean Foster 2011. Statistics for business: Decision Making and Analysis. Econ 15B: A custom edition for UC Irvine. Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.

Required Software: EViews. Quantitative Micro Software. A one-year software package can be purchased for $30 at the computer store (upstairs) in the UCI campus bookstore. If you're low on money (or just a cheapskate), you don't need to buy this software. It should beinstalled on all computer labs in the School of Social Sciences, as well as many of the public access NACS labs on campus. (EViews is not on all campus computers; e.g., it is not on the reference terminals in the libraries.) All computing assignments must be completed using EViews; using other software (e.g. Excel, SPLUS, SPSS, etc.) is not permitted.

Approximate Schedule (subject to change!):

		Econ 15A
		Tuesday	Thursday	Book Chapter
	Week 1	Introduction; Eviews	Measurement scales Graphs	2, 4
	Week 2	Graphs Moments of a data set	Moments	4
	Week 3	Moments Probability theory basics	Review	4, 7
	Week 4	Exam A1	Probability	8, 9,10, 11
Homework A1 [Feb 5] [Feb 12]	Week 5	Probability	Probability Discrete distributions
	Week 6	Discrete distributions	Review
	Week 7	Exam A2	Continuous distributions
	Week 8	Continuous distributions	Continuous distributions The normal distribution	12
Homework A2 [March 5]	Week 9	The normal distribution	Review	12
	Week 10	Exam A3	Review
	Finals Week	Exam A4 - Tuesday, March 19, 1030a

The NeedToKnows for 15A&B
Warning: If the relevant NeedToKnows have not been explicitly demarcated, the list for that test has not yet been finalized -- (mis)use at your own risk!

		Econ 15B
		Tuesday	Thursday	Book Chapter
	Week 1	Introduction; Refresher on the Normal distribution	Sampling and the Central Limit Theorem Point estimation	13, 14
	Week 2	Point estimation CIs for Z ~N(0,1)	CIs for Z ~N(0,1) CIs when variance is known	14, 15
	Week 3	CIs when variance is known CIs when variance is unknown;	Review	15
	Week 4	Exam B1	CIs when variance is unknown CIs for proportions	15, 16
Homework B1	Week 5	CIs for proportions CIs for the variance Simple hypothesis tests	Simple hypothesis tests 1-sided hypothesesis tests	16
	Week 6	1-sided hypothesesis tests 2-sided hypothesis tests	2-sided hypothesis tests	16
	Week 7	Exam B2	Testing two samples
	Week 8	2-sided hypothesis tests Testing two samples	Testing two samples	16,18
Homework B2	Week 9	Testing two samples	Review	18
	Week 10	Exam B3	Review
	Finals Week	Exam B4 - Monday, Dec. 10, 7p

Grading

Exams: 85 points total

3 midterms and 1 comprehensive final, taking the best 3 out of 4

these 3 tests are equally weighted

Homework: 15 points total

2 equally weighted computer assignments designed to ensure familiarity with statistical software.

Extra Credit: 11 points total

Lab attendance – 1 point per week (weeks 3 and 7 are free for all) [total 9 pts]
Mid/end of term course evaluations – 1 point [total 2 pts]

Scale:

                                A ≥  93.5  > A- ≥  90
                                >

                                B+ ≥  86.5  > B ≥ 
                                83.5  > B- ≥  80 >

                                C+ ≥  76.5  > C ≥ 
                                73.5  > C- ≥  70 >

                                D+ ≥  66.5  > D ≥ 
                                63.5  > D- ≥  60  >
                                F

Kent's Data Sets, etc. (for homework, from lectures, etc.)

Comments and Hints
Some notation

For all of Econ 15A-B, whenever we mention a data set, you may always assume that it contains at least two distinct (i.e., unequal) numbers.
In your calculations, the minimum level of precision is as follows: all calculations must be made to at least two digits of precision; any remaining digits can simply be dropped (you do not have to round up). You can, of course, be more precise than this if you wish.

Fine Print

Students are responsible for checking their UCI email accounts daily, and for checking this website for notifications daily.

Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. Students caught engaging in any form of academic dishonesty will receive an F for the course. Academic (dis)honesty at UCI is summarized here.

Courtesy and collegiality towards all persons connected with this course is expected at all times; deviations will be penalized.

Problems with exam. Dropping your lowest test score is my mechanism for dealing with problematic cases involving exams. While I will drop your lowest score, you may need to do this due to adverse circumstances, which include but are not limited to: issues concerning your athletic/band/debate/social/work schedule, illness, stuck in traffic, forgot the test date, job/internship interview, alien abduction, family emergency, doctor’s appointment, too stoned to stand, drunk, weather difficulties, other tests that day, your test ``mysteriously'' disappeared, etc. If this course is a sufficiently low priority for you that you will miss half or more of the exams, you may wish to consider whether this is the right time for you to be taking a university-level class.

Once you have received your exam, you may not not leave the hall without turning your exam in; failure to do so will result in your exam not being graded.

During exams, phones, tablets, laptops, etc. are not permitted to be available for use and/or visible in any way. Also, only calculators capable of very basic functions are permitted. Devices capable of displaying graphs, displaying content such as definitions, functions, notes etc., interfacing with a computer or the internet are not permitted. All violations of this policy will be treated as acts of academic dishonesty, regardless of what information has or has not been stored or displayed on the device, and are subject to the penalties therein. You are responsible for knowing whether your calculator has impermissible functionality. Here are some examples of permissible and impermissible calculators.

Any concerns regarding homework or extra credit (lab attendance, test preps, etc.) must be addressed within one week of the relevant score’s being posted on EEE. After that, the scores are written in stone.

Any concerns regarding exams must be addressed within two weeks of the relevant score’s being posted on EEE. After that, the scores are written in stone.

You are responsible for taking care of these matters within the allotted time frame. Simply emailing the TA/instructor asking them to take care of things for you is typically not sufficient; you should plan to make an appointment in person with the relevant person(s) about any such issues, and to resolve them within the time frame.

Once the exam has been graded, if it leaves the TA's presence for any length of time, your score will not be altered under any circumstances.