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In the middle of the 17th century, philosopher-mathematicians floated a new
paradigm of judgment, in which the two values "yes" and "no" were replaced
by a continuum of probability values, and on top of the old logic of truth
and falsity was built what some of us in the 20th century came to see as a
new probability logic, a logic of partial belief -- within which
traditional accounts of knowledge and reason, of scientific methodology and
rational decision, are radically revised. For a more detailed picture of
the course, see (1) the first half dozen chapters of my book, Probability
and the Art of Judgment (Cambridge U. P., 1992), or (2) readings 1 and 4
in my web site: www.princeton.edu/~bayesway.
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