Remember to bring a scantron sheet. Fill it out beforehand. Don't forget to fill out the test form as soon as you get the test. Midterm Practice materials.
Final Practice materials. 

Jump directly to:  Homework and notes , Comments and hints ,Kent's Data Sets,  Xfiles (from the CD that came with our textbook)
General TA site    Jibonayan's Site
Probability and Statistics
Econ 15 A-B
  Winter-Spring 08
Spring: Tues/Thurs 11:00 - 12:20
HIB 100
[Humanities Instructional Building, #610, in cell D4 on campus map]

Midterm:  Tues., May 13 Fisher CalculatingFinal: Tues., June 10, 10:30 - 12:30

Drop/Add policy: This course complies with the Economics Department's drop/add policy. (short story: no drops after second week, not sixth week)
Signing Add Cards:  This instructor complies with a request from the Economics Department (short story: drop/adds take place online)

Basic Information
Instructor:  Kent Johnson (learn more about Kent here; learn less about Kent here)
Office Hours:  Tuesday, Thursday 2pm -- ?? (and by appointment)
Email: johnsonk@uci.edu
Office Location:  SST 755

TA:  John Rapalino  Email
Office Hours: Fri. 1 - 3pm (and by appointment)
Office Location:  SST 731
 TA:  Jibonayan Raychaudhuri Email
Office Hours: Mon. 1 - 3pm (and by appointment)
Office Location:  SST 305
 TA:  Shunan Zhang  Email
Office Hours: Wed. 11 -1pm (and by appointment)
Office Location:  SSL 477

Lab Sections

You must attend the lab you are registered in.
All labs are in SST 155

M   9:00 - 9:50
Jibonayan
M   3:00 - 3:50p
Shunan
M  6:00 - 6:50p
Jibonayan
Tu   5:00 - 5:50p
Jibonayan
Th   4:00 - 4:50p
John
Th  6:00 - 6:50p
John
F   5:00 - 5:50p
Shunan

Required Text: Ramsey, James B. 2002. The Elements of Statistics, with Applications to Economics and the Social Sciences. Belmont, CA: Duxbury.

Required Software: EViews. Quantitative Micro Software. A one-year software package can be purchased for $30 at the computer store (upstairs) in the UCI campus bookstore. If you're low on money (or just a cheapskate), you don't need to buy this software. It should beinstalled on all computer labs in the School of Social Sciences, as well as most of the public access NACS labs on campus. (EViews is not on all campus computers; e.g., it is not on the reference terminals in the libraries.)

Useful Text: Hang on to that old calculus textbook! There will probably be several times when you will want to consult it. The textbook for this course examines a number of issues in some mathematical detail. From time to time, I will gloss, or expand upon, some of these examinations (or 'proofs') with some notes for the course. Whenever I appeal to a notion from calculus, in addition to naming it, I will also cite where it is discussed in the textbook used for Math 2A-B, which is James Stewart 2004. Calculus (2 volumes, plus answer book and cd). Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole.

Attendance: Attending all lectures, and at least one lab section per week is mandatory; failure to satisfy this requirement may result in a reduction of points.

Course Prerequisite/Co-requisite:  This course sequence requires that you have taken, or are currently taking, at least two quarters of introductory calculus.  At UCI, this sequence is Math 2A-B, although you may have transferred credits for two quarters of calculus from eleswhere. (Obviously, this requirement is also satisfied by the completion of more advanced courses on the same topic, such as real analysis.) You really will need some calculus in this course. Please do not attempt to take Econ 15A-B without the appropriate background.

Important Dates: Please mark the following dates on your calendars. The midterm is on May 13 (Tuesday of 7th week), and the final is on Tuesday, June 10, 10:30am - 12:30pm. It is significantly to your advantage to make it to these exams. Make-up exams are possible, but they should be prefaced with a well-documented Very Good Reason. 


Studying.  At its heart, statistics is a branch of mathematics, and you need to study statistics pretty much like you studied the material in your calculus course. That means, among other things, that you need to practice, practice, practice! In many cases (although not always) the underlying logic and mathematics we will encounter involves only some very basic, high-school level, arithmetic, but there can be a lot of it. In addition to the homework exercises, you should also be doing the exercises at the end of each chapter of our book. I will often identify some of those exercises as being especially worthwhile.

 Approximate Syllabus
(subject to change!)
Econ 15A
Econ 15B
Tuesday
 Thursday
Tuesday
 Thursday
[Introduction]
 Chap. 2
 Week 1
 Chap 7
 Chap 7
Chap. 3
 Chap 4
 Week 2
 Chap 7
 Chap 8
Chap 4
 Chap 4/5
 Week 3
 Chap 8
 Chap8
Chap 5
 Chap 5
 Week 4
 Chap 8
 Chap 8/9
Chap 5
 Chap 5
 Week 5
 Chap 9
 Chap 10
Chap 5/6 Chap6/review
 Week 6
 Chap 10 Review
MIDTERM
 Chap 6
 Week 7
 MIDTERM
 Chap 10
Chap 6/7
 Chap 7
 Week 8
 Chap 10
 Chap 11
Chap 7
 Chap 7
 Week 9
 Chap 11
 Chap 11
Chap 7
 Chap 7/review
 Week 10
 Chap 11
 Review


Grading. 
Lab section attendance
 10%
Homework 25%
Midterm
 30%
Final
 35%
There may also be some quizzes/in-lab homeworks in the lab sections. The points for those will be taken out of some combination of the homework, midterm, and final points.

The grading scale is:

90 ­ = A
87.5 = A-		 850 ­ = B+
800 ­ = B
775 = B-		 750 ­ = C+
700 ­ = C
675 = C-		 650 ­ = D+
600 ­ = D
575 = D-		 below 575 = F

 
Homework and Notes
 If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.
   --  Don Marquis  
Homework/Quizzes
Everyone gets a break! Only the top 3 of the 4 homeworks will be used to determine how many homework points you have earned. (It goes without saying that you must always show your work on all problems.)    
        
15A (WINTER)
15B (SPRING)
Lecture Notes          
(Note: For Mathematics Needed, all citations are to the textbook used for Math 2A-B, which is James Stewart 2004. Calculus (2 volumes, plus answer book and cd). Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole.). Also, our topic is cumulative: if you need a certain type of mathematics in a given chapter, you will need it in subsequent chapters as well. 
Chapter
 Mathematics Needed
 Useful Exercises in the Book
include (but are not limited to):
Introduction and overview of the course. Chap00

Variables and Measurement Scales
Chap02

Graphs
Chap03
3.2, 3.4, 3.5, 3.11, 3.12. You should also do a few of the exercises that involve constructing graphs (in EViews).
Moments
Chap04
•Summation (sigma) notation (Appendix E, A34-A37),
•Exponentiation (p.424, Theorem 2 OR p. 468, Theorem 3)
4.3, 4.8,  4.9, 4.10,  4.13, 4.19, 4.20, 4.32, 4.33, 4.36
Correlation
Chap05
5.11 - 12, 5.22., 5.29, 5.31
Probability Theory
Chap06
Elementary set theory (cf.  our textbook (Ramsey) pp. 593 – 596 for additional reading)
6.3 - 6.5, 6.7, 6.10, 6.13, 6.16, 6.25, 6.26
Discrete Distributions
Chap07.1
Chap07.2
PrepForFinal
–Limits of a function (§2.2, p.70 on)
–Basic properties of the number e (427 – 449; esp. equation 9, p. 449 and problem 88, p. 450)
7.1 - 7.4, 7.9, 7.11, 7.30, 7.38, 7.39, 7.42, 7.52, 7.62
Continuous Distributions
Chap08
 Derivatives and integrals (Chaps 3, 5)
Here is a (completely optional) proof of the Central Limit Theorem (for variables with mgfs)
 8.2, 8.3a, 8.6, 8.11, 8.20, 8.24
Sampling Techniques
Chap09

Estimation Techniques
Chap10
10.10, 10.20, 10.22, 10.23
Hypothesis Testing
Chap11
11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.8, 11.10, 11.12 - 11.16, 11.24, 11.28, 11.29
Bivariate Distributions





Comments and Hints
(here's a big hint!)
Some notation
  • 15 A Final: Preparation Notes   Practice/Review Materials
  • Review notes for the 15A midterm.
  • Most of you need to become more comfortable with Sigma notation! If you are having trouble with the equations involving sigmas, replace them with the written out ordinary expansions; e.g., ((a + bx1) + (a + bx2) + (a + bx3) + ... + (a + bxn)), and try to understand why the (expanded) equation holds.
  • Concerns about attendance scores: When your lab-attendance score for a given week is released on EEE, you will have one week (or until the final, whichever comes first) to address any concerns you have (talk to the relevant TA). After that, your score is engraved in stone.
  • Concerns about quiz scores: When your score for a given quiz is released on EEE, you will have one week (or until the final, whichever comes first) to address any concerns you have. After that, your score is engraved in stone.
  • Concerns about homework scores: When your homework score for a given homework is released on EEE, you will have two weeks (or until the final, whichever comes first) to address any concerns you have (talk to the relevant TA). After that, your score is engraved in stone.

Kent's Data Sets (for homework, from lectures, etc.)
Notice: Because these files are password protected, to transfer them into Eviews, you will need to open the document using the password, select the content (e.g., by using control+a and then control+c), and then right-click on the grey area of Eviews and select Paste as new Workfile.

     Census Codes (you will need this from time to time)   BookstoreData     Chap05CensusData    2005StatewideCrime      2008JanCPS       2008MarchCPS 



All the files from "Xfiles"
To make life easier for you, I have put here all the files in the "Xfiles" folder from the CD that accompanied our textbook. Enjoy!


Agedisc
Discdata.xls (the Age Discrimination data file)

Energy
Argnteng.xls
Auseng.xls
Koreng.xls
Noreng.xls
Phileng.xls
Usaeng.xls

Firmdata
Avon.xls
Campbell.xls
Digital.xls
Goodyear.xls
Hasbro.xls
Johnson.xls
Three_m.xls




 Gnp
Domgnp (subfolder)
Domgnp.xls
Intlgnp (subfolder)
Swegnp.xls
Ukgnp.xls
Usgnp.xls

Intrate
Monyld.xls
 Misc
Age65.xls
Airbomb.xls
Anovastat.xls
Arms.xls
Birds.xls
Bldpill.xls
Caffeine.xls
Capital.xls
Cardata.xls
Cars93.xls
Chal.xls
Cities2.xls
Coles.xls
Cosize.xls
Cryanova.xls
Die8.xls
Energgdp.xls
Enerstus.xls
Film.xls
Food.xls
Geyser1.xls
Geyser2.xls
Grades.xls
Highway3.xls
Housing.xls
Htmw.xls
Htwtkest.xls
Humandev.xls
Husbands.xls
Nyseotc.xls
Psychol.xls
Rock.xls
Ror.xls
Tent.xls
Test.xls
Varreg1.xls
Varreg2.xls
Varreg3.xls		 Readme (text files describing the groups of data sets)
Readage.txt
Readeng.txt
Readfirm.txt
Readgnp.txt
Readindx.txt
Readintr.txt
Readmisc.txt
Readtest.txt
Readwhet.txt

Testscor
Psatcell.xls
Psatsat.xls

Wheatpr
Europe.xls
French.xls

 

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